Will Obamacare be repealed before Jan 20, 2029
Will Obamacare be repealed before Jan 20, 2029 is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
19¢ current
Contract brief
If a bill becomes law that eliminates any of the following ACA provisions: (1) the employer mandate (2) the Medicaid eligibility expansion (3) the protection for preexisting conditions (4) permitting people up to the age of 26 to be on their parents' health care plans or (5) ends the premium subsidies for households on the ACA marketplace before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Obamacare be repealed before Jan 20, 2029
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$9K
Identifier
KXACAREPEAL-29-29JAN20
Jun 24, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$9K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$9K
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a bill becomes law that eliminates any of the following ACA provisions: (1) the employer mandate (2) the Medicaid eligibility expansion (3) the protection for preexisting conditions (4) permitting people up to the age of 26 to be on their parents' health care plans or (5) ends the premium subsidies for households on the ACA marketplace before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXACAREPEAL-29-29JAN20
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Obamacare be repealed before Jan 20, 2029 19¢
Current share
100%
Will Obamacare be repealed before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi · KXACAREPEAL-29-29JAN20
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 19% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.