Before Jul 31, 2026 · Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Ju
Before Jul 31, 2026 is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 88¢ bid, 89¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Ju.
Price history
88¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater before Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jul 31, 2026
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
Before Jul 31, 2026 88¢
Range
19¢-88¢
Family volume
$77K
Identifier
KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL31
Jun 25, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
88¢
Ask
89¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Ju
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Family volume
$77K
Orderbook snapshot
88 / 89¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater before Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL31
Event family
Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Ju.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$77K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Before Jul 31, 2026 88¢
Current share
6%
Before Jul 31, 2026
kalshi · KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL31
Before Jul 15, 2026
kalshi · KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL15
Before Jul 3, 2026
kalshi · KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL03
Before Jul 10, 2026
kalshi · KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL10
Before Jun 30, 2026
kalshi · KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN30
Before Jun 26, 2026
kalshi · KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN26
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 88% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.