Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 15, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that OpenAI will announce or release GPT-5.6 within the next 29 days (by July 15, 2026). The high 91% price suggests traders believe a release is likely imminent, though contracts for earlier dates show uncertainty about exact timing—the June 19 contract trades at only 12%, indicating skepticism about a release in the next three days. The main drivers are OpenAI's typical release cadence, any public announcements or roadmap signals, and competitive pressures from other AI labs. The primary catalyst will be any official statement from OpenAI about GPT-5.6 availability, whether through a press release, blog post, or developer announcement. If no release occurs by mid-July, the probability would face significant downward pressure, suggesting traders see a narrow window for this outcome.

• ›The 12-cent price on the June 19 deadline versus 91 cents on July 15 indicates most expected release probability is concentrated in late June or early July, not immediately
• ›OpenAI has not made a public announcement of GPT-5.6 as of June 16, 2026, making any near-term release speculative rather than confirmed
• ›The 97-cent price on the July 31 contract suggests traders view a release by end-of-month as nearly certain, but the July 15 cutoff narrows this to a specific two-week window
• ›Trading volume is minimal across most contracts ($0-$330 in 24h), suggesting limited market conviction and potential for significant repricing on news
• ›Success requires both model completion and OpenAI's decision to release under the 5.6 designation rather than delay or rebrand

What moved the line

• Jun 21Before Jun 26, 2026↓52pp74→22¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21Before Jun 30, 2026↓45pp81→36¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 18Before Jul 31, 2026↑33pp40→73¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Before Jun 30, 2026↓30pp53→23¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19Before Jun 26, 2026↑27pp50→77¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds