ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jul 8, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.

1 source contract·Kalshi 1·closed just now·Closes Jul 31, 2026 · 22d

Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 15, 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

97%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

97%

1 contract

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$32K

1 contracts

Closes

Jul 31, 2026

22 days

Open top contract Read answer ai tech

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 10, 2026?: Before Jul 10, 202697¢$32K

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 10, 2026

1 contract$32K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 10, 2026?: Before Jul 10, 2026

KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL10

97¢—$32KK→

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that OpenAI will announce or release GPT-5.6 within the next 29 days (by July 15, 2026). The high 91% price suggests traders believe a release is likely imminent, though contracts for earlier dates show uncertainty about exact timing—the June 19 contract trades at only 12%, indicating skepticism about a release in the next three days. The main drivers are OpenAI's typical release cadence, any public announcements or roadmap signals, and competitive pressures from other AI labs. The primary catalyst will be any official statement from OpenAI about GPT-5.6 availability, whether through a press release, blog post, or developer announcement. If no release occurs by mid-July, the probability would face significant downward pressure, suggesting traders see a narrow window for this outcome.

›The 12-cent price on the June 19 deadline versus 91 cents on July 15 indicates most expected release probability is concentrated in late June or early July, not immediately
›OpenAI has not made a public announcement of GPT-5.6 as of June 16, 2026, making any near-term release speculative rather than confirmed
›The 97-cent price on the July 31 contract suggests traders view a release by end-of-month as nearly certain, but the July 15 cutoff narrows this to a specific two-week window
›Trading volume is minimal across most contracts ($0-$330 in 24h), suggesting limited market conviction and potential for significant repricing on news
›Success requires both model completion and OpenAI's decision to release under the 5.6 designation rather than delay or rebrand

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Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

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