Otzma Yehudit · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01
Otzma Yehudit is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 21¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01.
Price history
10¢ current
−20¢Contract brief
If a coalition that includes Otzma Yehudit make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Otzma Yehudit
Rank
#9 of 16
Leader
Together 66¢
Range
3¢-66¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-OYEH
Sep 8, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
21¢
24h volume
$1
Family rank
#9 of 16
16 outcomes · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 31¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a coalition that includes Otzma Yehudit make up the next elected ruling government of Israel before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-OYEH
Event family
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Together 66¢
Current share
0%
Together
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-TOG
The Democrats
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-DEM
Foundations of Israel
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-ROI
Religious Zionist Party
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-RZP
Likud
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-LIK
Ra’am
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-RAAM
Shas
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-SHA
New Economic Party
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-NEP
Otzma Yehudit
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-OYEH
Noam
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-NOAM
Blue and White
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-BW
United Torah Judaism
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-UTJ
Hadash–Ta’al
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-HTAA
Zionist Home–The Reservists
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-RES
Amcha Yisrael
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-AYIS
Balad
kalshi · KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-BAL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.