Will Likud be a part of the next government in Israel
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$25
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
464 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Noam be a part of the next government in Israel
Will Noam be a part of the next government in Israel?: Noam
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-NOAM
Cluster 2
Will United Torah Judaism be a part of the next government in Israel
Will United Torah Judaism be a part of the next government in Israel?: United Torah Judaism
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-UTJ
Cluster 3
Will The Democrats be a part of the next government in Israel
Will The Democrats be a part of the next government in Israel?: The Democrats
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-DEM
Cluster 4
Will Yisrael Beiteinu be a part of the next government in Israel
Will Yisrael Beiteinu be a part of the next government in Israel?: Yisrael Beiteinu
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-YIS
Cluster 5
Will Hadash–Ta’al be a part of the next government in Israel
Will Hadash–Ta’al be a part of the next government in Israel?: Hadash–Ta’al
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-HTAA
Cluster 6
Will Likud be a part of the next government in Israel
Will Likud be a part of the next government in Israel?: Likud
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-LIK
Cluster 7
Will New Economic Party be a part of the next government in Israel
Will New Economic Party be a part of the next government in Israel?: New Economic Party
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-NEP
Cluster 8
Will Otzma Yehudit be a part of the next government in Israel
Will Otzma Yehudit be a part of the next government in Israel?: Otzma Yehudit
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-OYEH
Cluster 9
Will Ra’am be a part of the next government in Israel
Will Ra’am be a part of the next government in Israel?: Ra’am
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-RAAM
Cluster 10
Will Religious Zionist Party be a part of the next government in Israel
Cluster 11
Will Yashar be a part of the next government in Israel
Will Yashar be a part of the next government in Israel?: Yashar
KXISRAELGOVT-28JAN01-YAS
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Likud, Israel's largest right-wing party led by Benjamin Netanyahu, will be included in the next government coalition. At 41%, the market suggests roughly even odds for Likud's participation, reflecting political uncertainty in Israel's fractious parliament. The probability is shaped by two main dynamics: first, Likud's traditional role as a major coalition player due to its size and electoral strength, which pulls the probability higher; second, potential political realignment or court-related developments affecting Netanyahu's viability as a coalition partner, which could lower it. The probability will likely shift significantly when elections are called or scheduled, when coalition negotiations begin following any electoral results, or if major legal or political developments affect Netanyahu's status. Comparison contracts show Blue and White at 53% and smaller parties like Otzma Yehudit at 33%, suggesting the market is pricing substantial uncertainty about coalition composition.
- ›Likud's historical position as Israel's largest right-wing party typically gives it coalition leverage, but 41% pricing indicates market uncertainty about this assumption holding
- ›Netanyahu's ongoing legal proceedings and potential disqualification represent a concrete factor that could materially reduce Likud's inclusion probability
- ›Blue and White's 53% probability versus Likud's 41% suggests market expectation of a government excluding or sidelining Likud, conditional on specific coalition formation
- ›Contract volumes ($69-71 24h vol across multiple parties) indicate meaningful liquidity but also suggest these probabilities remain genuinely uncertain rather than consensus
- ›The spread between related contracts (Noam 41%, Otzma Yehudit 33%, Shas 38%) indicates traders are differentiated coalition scenarios rather than pricing all outcomes similarly
What moved the line
- Sep 23Yisrael Beiteinu↓27pp60→33¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17United Torah Judaism↑25pp10→35¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17The Democrats↑24pp15→39¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23United Torah Judaism↑22pp11→33¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Likud↓20pp42→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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