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Over 0.5 goals scored

Reg Time: Over 0.5 goals scored is priced at 94¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 93¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside KXWCTOTAL-26JUL14FRAESP.

Price history

94¢ current

+1¢
90¢95¢
Jul 12, 2026Jul 13, 2026

Contract brief

If over 0.5 goals are scored in the France vs Spain professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Reg Time: Over 0.5 goals scored

Rank

#1 of 6

Leader

Reg Time: Over 0.5 goals scored 93¢

Range

6¢-93¢

Family volume

$249K

Identifier

KXWCTOTAL-26JUL14FRAESP-1

Jul 13, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 14m ago

Implied probability

94¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 13, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 14m ago

Bid

93¢

Ask

94¢

Spread

24h volume

$33K

Family rank

#1 of 6

6 outcomes · KXWCTOTAL-26JUL14FRAESP

Closes

Jul 28, 2026

Family volume

$249K

Orderbook snapshot

93 / 94¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
93¢1.4K
92¢152K
91¢116K
90¢19K
89¢9.0K
AskSize
94¢515K
95¢176K
96¢93K
97¢76K
98¢167K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If over 0.5 goals are scored in the France vs Spain professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 28, 2026

Identifier

KXWCTOTAL-26JUL14FRAESP-1

SF Signal
SF Index
16107.84
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

184.5%

IY (No)

32567.4%

Adj IY

16108%

CRI

13

Overround

1.7%

LAS

0.01

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

184.5%
32567.4%
Adj IY
16108%
13
Overround
1.7%
LAS
0.01

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.