Will over 1.5 goals be scored

30-day trend

Analysis

The 56% probability indicates that traders believe there is roughly even odds that a sporting event will see at least 2 goals scored total. The current level reflects a balance between factors that typically correlate with higher-scoring matches and those that suggest defensive efficiency. Key drivers of the probability include team offensive capabilities, defensive strength, playing conditions, and historical scoring patterns between the opponents. The resolution will depend on the actual match outcome, which removes all uncertainty once the event concludes. Traders are currently pricing in a slight lean toward the over, suggesting modest confidence that scoring will exceed the 1.5-goal threshold, though the proximity to 50% indicates meaningful disagreement about likely outcomes.

• ›Offensive output of participating teams compared to season or period averages
• ›Defensive record and goals conceded by teams involved in the match
• ›Recent head-to-head scoring history between the two opponents
• ›Playing conditions such as weather, venue, and match significance that may affect tactical approach
• ›Current contract distribution at 69-70¢ versus 30¢ spread indicating moderate certainty rather than consensus

What moved the line

• Jun 23Over 0.5 goals scored↓5pp90→85¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Over 1.5 goals scored↓5pp70→65¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Over 0.5 goals scored↓3pp85→82¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Over 3.5 goals scored↑3pp30→33¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Over 1.5 goals scored↓3pp65→62¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds