Parmida · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26
Parmida is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside KXLIUSAWINNERS-26.
Price history
11¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If Parmida is officially declared the winner of Love Island USA Season 8, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Parmida
Rank
#10 of 16
Leader
Trinity 52¢
Range
1¢-52¢
Family volume
$34K
Identifier
KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-PAR
Jun 23, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#10 of 16
16 outcomes · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
Family volume
$34K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Parmida is officially declared the winner of Love Island USA Season 8, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
Identifier
KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-PAR
Event family
KXLIUSAWINNERS-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$34K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Trinity 52¢
Current share
10%
Trinity
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-TRI
Bryce
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-BRY
Melanie
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-MEL
Kayda
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-KAY
Caleb
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-
Aniya
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-ANI
Sincere
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-SIN
KC
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-KCC
Zach
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-ZAC
Parmida
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-PAR
Tierra
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-TIE
Kenzie
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-KEN
Jen
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-JEN
Jaiden
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-JAI
Corbin
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-COR
Sean
kalshi · KXLIUSAWINNERS-26-SEA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.