Before 2030 · Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 20
Before 2030 is priced at 49¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 42¢ bid, 44¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 20.
Price history
49¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2030
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Before 2030 42¢
Range
11¢-42¢
Family volume
$478
Identifier
KXCHINABIRTHLIMITS-26JUL08-30JAN01
Jul 8, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
42¢
Ask
44¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$51
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 20
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Family volume
$478
Orderbook snapshot
42 / 44¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Identifier
KXCHINABIRTHLIMITS-26JUL08-30JAN01
Event family
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 20.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$478
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before 2030 42¢
Current share
11%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.