Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of the hukou household registration system nationwide before Jan 1, 2029
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of the hukou household registration system nationwide before Jan 1, 2029 is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
9¢ current
Contract brief
If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of the hukou household registration system nationwide before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of the hukou household registration system nationwide before Jan 1, 2029
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXCHINAHUKOU-26JUL08-29JAN01
Aug 21, 2026, 5:35 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of the hukou household registration system nationwide before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Identifier
KXCHINAHUKOU-26JUL08-29JAN01
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of the hukou household registration system nationwide before Jan 1, 2029 9¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.