SimpleFunctions

Pete Crow-Armstrong · KXMLBAWARDFIN-26NLMVP

Pete Crow-Armstrong is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 94¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside KXMLBAWARDFIN-26NLMVP.

Price history

99¢ current

+8¢
90¢100¢
Aug 6, 2026Aug 8, 2026

Contract brief

If Pete Crow-Armstrong is selected as a finalist for National League MVP in the 2026 Pro Baseball season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Rank

#1 of 4

Leader

Pete Crow-Armstrong 94¢

Range

15¢-94¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXMLBAWARDFIN-26NLMVP-PCROWARMSTRONG4

Aug 10, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 42m ago

Implied probability

99¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 10, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 42m ago

Bid

94¢

Ask

99¢

Spread

Reported volume

$51

Family rank

#1 of 4

4 outcomes · KXMLBAWARDFIN-26NLMVP

Closes

Dec 8, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

94 / 99¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
94¢3.3K
6¢5.0K
5¢99
AskSize
99¢24

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Pete Crow-Armstrong is selected as a finalist for National League MVP in the 2026 Pro Baseball season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 8, 2026

Identifier

KXMLBAWARDFIN-26NLMVP-PCROWARMSTRONG4

SF Signal
SF Index
2371.65
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXMLBAWARDFIN-26NLMVP.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

4

Highest price

Pete Crow-Armstrong 94¢

Current share

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

19.3%

IY (No)

4743.3%

Adj IY

2372%

CRI

16

Overround

1.3%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

19.3%
4743.3%
Adj IY
2372%
16
Overround
1.3%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.