Will Shohei Ohtani be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League MVP in the 2026 season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−8pp
22h ago
24h volume
$3K
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
123 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Elly De La Cruz be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League MVP in the 2026 season
Cluster 2
Will Parker Messick be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 3
Will Mason Miller be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 4
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 5
Will Ceddanne Rafaela be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League MVP in the 2026 season
Cluster 6
Will Bryan Woo be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 7
Will Dillon Dingler be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League MVP in the 2026 season
Cluster 8
Will Chris Sale be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 9
Will Jesús Luzardo be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 10
Will Chase Burns be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 11
Will Paul Skenes be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 12
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League MVP in the 2026 season
Cluster 13
Will Shohei Ohtani be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League MVP in the 2026 season
Cluster 14
Will Sonny Gray be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 15
Will Cam Schlittler be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 16
Will Dylan Cease be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 17
Will Drew Rasmussen be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 18
Will Gavin Williams be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 19
Will Ben Rice be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League MVP in the 2026 season
Cluster 20
Will Bobby Witt Jr. be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League MVP in the 2026 season
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated chance that Shohei Ohtani will reach the final three finalists for the 2026 National League MVP award. Currently priced at 38%, the assessment balances Ohtani's demonstrated elite performance capabilities against the inherent unpredictability of award voting and the strength of competing candidates. MVP voting depends on seasonal performance metrics, narrative strength, and voter preferences that shift annually. The key variable is Ohtani's health and production level during the 2026 season—injuries or underperformance would significantly lower finalists chances, while an exceptional year would increase them. The resolution occurs in November 2026 when baseball writers cast their MVP votes and the finalists are announced. Ohtani's career trajectory, team performance, and media narrative throughout the season will substantially influence whether he achieves finalist status.
- ›Ohtani's 2026 seasonal statistics (batting average, home runs, WAR, games played) compared to other NL position players—health directly impacts eligibility
- ›Team playoff performance and relevance; players on successful teams typically receive stronger MVP consideration from voters
- ›Strength of competing MVP candidates in the NL that year; depth of elite talent in the league affects threshold for finalist selection
- ›Ohtani's historical voting patterns and name recognition; prior recognition may influence voter behavior in 2026
- ›Award voting timeline occurs post-season in November 2026; finalist announcement represents the concrete resolution point
What moved the line
- Aug 7Pete Crow-Armstrong↑3pp91→94¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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