Will Phil Lord & Christopher Miller win Best Director at the Oscars?

6¢

Bid/Ask 0/8¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $1,681.84·Closes Dec 31, 2027·621d remaining

KXOSCARDIR-27-PHI

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 8¢ spread, making the 919% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 6¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability for Lord & Miller to win Best Director at the 2027 Oscars, though their recent commercial success (Spider-Verse films, The Lego Movie) suggests the market may be undervaluing their chances relative to typical Oscar patterns. With 622 days until expiry and only $1,681.84 in open interest, this appears to be a niche betting position with minimal market depth rather than a genuine pricing discovery mechanism.

Resolution rules

If Phil Lord & Christopher Miller has won Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 920.7%

IY (No) 3.8%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 16

Overround -0.2%

LAS 1.33

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	920.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.33	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 12:30:16 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 12:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXOSCARDIR-27-PHI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →