Will Martin McDonagh win Best Director at the Oscars
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
465 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the Oscars?: Christopher Nolan
KXOSCARDIR-27-CHRI
Cluster 2
Will Denis Villeneuve win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Denis Villeneuve win Best Director at the Oscars?: Denis Villeneuve
KXOSCARDIR-27-DEN
Cluster 3
Will Martin McDonagh win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Martin McDonagh win Best Director at the Oscars?: Martin McDonagh
KXOSCARDIR-27-MAR
Cluster 4
Will Andrew Haigh win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Andrew Haigh win Best Director at the Oscars?: Andrew Haigh
KXOSCARDIR-27-AND
Cluster 5
Will Joel Coen win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Joel Coen win Best Director at the Oscars?: Joel Coen
KXOSCARDIR-27-JOE
Cluster 6
Will Alejandro G. Iñárritu win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Alejandro G. Iñárritu win Best Director at the Oscars?: Alejandro G. Iñárritu
KXOSCARDIR-27-ALE
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations for Martin McDonagh to win Best Director at the Oscars. At 17%, McDonagh ranks below Christopher Nolan (68%) and Denis Villeneuve (18%) but above other candidates. The current level likely reflects uncertainty about McDonagh's competitive position relative to other acclaimed directors who may have stronger industry support or more prestigious recent releases. The probability could shift based on the 2027 Oscar ceremony date and major announcements of competing directors' films in the coming months. Key factors include the quality and reception of McDonagh's next major film release, the strength of his historical Academy voting patterns, and the competitive field of other established directors who may dominate the ceremony. The actual ceremony in early 2027 will definitively resolve this, but interim developments—film festival premieres, industry awards, and critical consensus—will likely move the probability substantially before then.
- ›Christopher Nolan trades at 4x the probability of McDonagh (68¢ vs 17¢), suggesting market believes Nolan has significantly stronger positioning for this award cycle
- ›Denis Villeneuve prices nearly identical to McDonagh despite both competing in the same award season, indicating close perceived odds between the two directors
- ›McDonagh has won Best Director at major festivals previously but has limited Academy Award nominations compared to Nolan or Villeneuve, which may constrain base probability
- ›The volume and liquidity data show Villeneuve contracts trading at $807 in 24-hour volume while other non-Nolan contracts show minimal trading, suggesting market uncertainty about McDonagh's viability
- ›Upcoming film releases and festival circuit performance (particularly fall 2026-winter 2027) will be primary catalysts for moving this probability before the March 2027 ceremony
What moved the line
- Sep 19Christopher Nolan↑7pp58→65¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Christopher Nolan↑3pp58→61¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Christopher Nolan↓3pp61→58¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Denis Villeneuve↓3pp21→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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