Will Martin McDonagh win Best Director at the Oscars
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6
9 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
601 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the Oscars?: Christopher Nolan
KXOSCARDIR-27-CHRI
Cluster 2
Will Phil Lord & Christopher Miller win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Phil Lord & Christopher Miller win Best Director at the Oscars?: Phil Lord & Christopher Miller
KXOSCARDIR-27-PHI
Cluster 3
Will Martin McDonagh win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Martin McDonagh win Best Director at the Oscars?: Martin McDonagh
KXOSCARDIR-27-MAR
Cluster 4
Will Danny Boyle win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Danny Boyle win Best Director at the Oscars?: Danny Boyle
KXOSCARDIR-27-DAN
Cluster 5
Will Na Hong-jin win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Na Hong-jin win Best Director at the Oscars?: Na Hong-jin
KXOSCARDIR-27-NAH
Cluster 6
Will Andrew Haigh win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Andrew Haigh win Best Director at the Oscars?: Andrew Haigh
KXOSCARDIR-27-AND
Cluster 7
Will Steven Spielberg win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Steven Spielberg win Best Director at the Oscars?: Steven Spielberg
KXOSCARDIR-27-STE
Cluster 8
Will David Fincher win Best Director at the Oscars
Will David Fincher win Best Director at the Oscars?: David Fincher
KXOSCARDIR-27-DAV
Cluster 9
Will Joel Coen win Best Director at the Oscars
Will Joel Coen win Best Director at the Oscars?: Joel Coen
KXOSCARDIR-27-JOE
Analysis
This 8% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Martin McDonagh will win Best Director at the upcoming Academy Awards ceremony. McDonagh is an acclaimed filmmaker with multiple Oscar nominations across different categories, but the Best Director race typically features a competitive field of established directors. The probability could shift based on the critical reception and awards momentum of his nominated film throughout the season, as well as the performance of competing directors at other major ceremonies like the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, which often signal Academy voting patterns. The Academy Awards ceremony itself, scheduled for March 2027, will ultimately resolve this market. Until then, the probability may adjust as films enter the awards conversation, critics' organizations announce their selections, and voter sentiment becomes clearer through preliminary voting metrics.
- ›McDonagh's historical track record: he has received directing nominations at major ceremonies but has not won Best Director at the Oscars despite multiple opportunities
- ›The strength of competing nominees: the final Best Director category will include other accomplished directors whose films and performances may outpace McDonagh's entry in critical consensus
- ›Awards season momentum: performance at precursor ceremonies (Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Directors Guild Awards) historically correlate strongly with Oscar outcomes
- ›The specific film's critical reception and box office performance: reviews, rankings from major critics' organizations, and general audience response will drive campaign visibility
- ›Academy membership voting demographics: recent Oscar voting patterns show preference variations by voter age, tenure, and international representation that could favor or disfavor different directing styles
What moved the line
- May 6Christopher Nolan↓9pp38→29¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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