Will Pittsburgh win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Pittsburgh win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing October 31, 2028. Pittsburgh's 5¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability for winning the 2026 NL Championship, yet the Yes position carries an extraordinary 943.9% implied yield—a stark contrast to the No side's 1.6%—suggesting significant mispricing or that the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty about Pittsburgh's competitive window.
Analysis
Pittsburgh's 5¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability for winning the 2026 NL Championship, yet the Yes position carries an extraordinary 943.9% implied yield—a stark contrast to the No side's 1.6%—suggesting significant mispricing or that the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty about Pittsburgh's competitive window. The $55.7K open interest with only $9.6K in 24-hour volume indicates relatively thin liquidity for such a long-dated contract (928 days), which may explain the wide yield disparity and the elevated 24 Cliff Risk Index. The flat 7-day price action at 4¢ suggests the market has settled into a consensus view, though the extreme yield asymmetry warrants caution about whether this reflects true probability or merely illiquidity on the Yes side.
Resolution rules
If Pittsburgh win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBNL-26-PIT yes 100