Will quarterly GDP be above 5% in any quarter in Q1 2025 to Q4 2028
Will quarterly GDP be above 5% in any quarter in Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 is priced at 51¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 51¢ bid, 51¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
51¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If any quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 has GDP growth of above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will quarterly GDP be above 5% in any quarter in Q1 2025 to Q4 2028
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$166K
Identifier
KXGDPUSMAX-28-5
Jun 26, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
51¢
Ask
51¢
Spread
0¢
Reported volume
$166K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 26, 2029
Family volume
$166K
Orderbook snapshot
51 / 51¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If any quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 has GDP growth of above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 26, 2029
Identifier
KXGDPUSMAX-28-5
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$166K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will quarterly GDP be above 5% in any quarter in Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 51¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
data_release
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 51% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.