Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Rhode Island
Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Rhode Island is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 91¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
95¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
If Raymond McKay wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Rhode Island Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Rhode Island
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXSENATERIR-26-RMCK
Jun 25, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
91¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$300
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
91 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Raymond McKay wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Rhode Island Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXSENATERIR-26-RMCK
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Rhode Island 95¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 95% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.