Reform party · KXUKPARTY-29
Reform party is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside KXUKPARTY-29.
Price history
34¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If the Reform party receives the most seats in the next U.K. general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Reform party
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Reform party 35¢
Range
2¢-35¢
Family volume
$71
Identifier
KXUKPARTY-29-R
Jun 25, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$2
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · KXUKPARTY-29
Closes
Aug 31, 2029
Family volume
$71
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Reform party receives the most seats in the next U.K. general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 31, 2029
Identifier
KXUKPARTY-29-R
Event family
KXUKPARTY-29.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$71
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Reform party 35¢
Current share
3%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.