Will Reform win the next U.K. election?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will Reform win the next U.K. election?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing August 31, 2029. Reform's probability has surged 16% over the past week to 37¢, suggesting recent polling shifts or political developments are driving bullish sentiment, though the $9 daily volume indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings.
Analysis
Reform's probability has surged 16% over the past week to 37¢, suggesting recent polling shifts or political developments are driving bullish sentiment, though the $9 daily volume indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The 50.4% annualized yield on Yes positions is notably elevated relative to the 17.4% No yield, reflecting market uncertainty about a party that has historically underperformed seat projections due to the U.K.'s first-past-the-post system. With 1,233 days until resolution and only $13,190 open interest, this market lacks the depth to confidently arbitrage against other prediction venues, making it vulnerable to outsized moves on breaking news.
Resolution rules
If the Reform party receives the most seats in the next U.K. general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKPARTY-29-R yes 100