Religious Zionist Party win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Religious Zionist Party is priced at 56¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #16 of 16 inside KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27.
Price history
56¢ current
+52¢Contract brief
If Religious Zionist Party has won at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Religious Zionist Party
Rank
#16 of 16
Leader
Likud 94¢
Range
3¢-94¢
Family volume
$525
Identifier
KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-RZP
Sep 7, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#16 of 16
16 outcomes · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27
Closes
Oct 27, 2027
Family volume
$525
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Religious Zionist Party has won at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 27, 2027
Identifier
KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-RZP
Event family
KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$525
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Likud 94¢
Current share
0%
Likud
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-LIK
Together
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-TOG
Shas
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-SHAS
The Democrats
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-DEM
Otzma Yehudit
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-OYEH
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-JOINT
Ra'am
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-RAAM
RZP-Zehut
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-RZEH
People of Israel
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-PEOPLE
Zionist Home–The Reservists
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-ZHOME
Noam for Israel
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-NOAM
Blue and White
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-BW
New Economic Party
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-NEP
Israel First
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-IFIR
A Place for All of Us
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-PLACE
Religious Zionist Party
kalshi · KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-RZP
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.