Will The Democrats win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 55% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
55%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$526
20 contracts
Closes
Oct 27, 2027
415 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will New Economic Party win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 2
Will Zionist Home–The Reservists win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 3
Will People of Israel win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 4
Will Blue and White win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 5
Will The Democrats win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 6
Will Israel First win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 7
Will Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad) win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 8
Will Likud win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Will Likud win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: Likud
KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-LIK
Cluster 9
Will Noam for Israel win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 10
Will Otzma Yehudit win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 11
Will A Place for All of Us win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 12
Will Ra'am win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Will Ra'am win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: Ra'am
KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-RAAM
Cluster 13
Will RZP-Zehut win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Will RZP-Zehut win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: RZP-Zehut
KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-RZEH
Cluster 14
Will Religious Zionist Party win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 15
Will Shas win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Will Shas win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: Shas
KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-SHAS
Cluster 16
Will Together win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Will Together win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: Together
KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-TOG
Cluster 17
Will United Torah Judaism win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 18
Will Yashar win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Will Yashar win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: Yashar
KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-YASHAR
Cluster 19
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 20
Will Zehut win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Will Zehut win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: Zehut
KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-ZEH
Analysis
This predicts whether The Democrats, a political party in Israel, will win at least one seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. The 8% probability reflects the party's historical difficulty in achieving Knesset representation. The main factors driving this low probability include Israel's high electoral threshold (currently 3.25% of votes nationally) that many smaller parties struggle to clear, and The Democrats' limited polling visibility and organizational capacity relative to other parties competing for centrist or left-leaning votes. The election itself, scheduled for late 2026, will ultimately determine whether the party mobilizes sufficient support. Key uncertainties include whether The Democrats can consolidate a distinct voter base before elections, how electoral coalitions form among smaller parties, and whether demographic or political shifts create space for new entrants in the crowded center-left political landscape.
- ›Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold represents a significant structural barrier that has prevented many smaller parties from achieving Knesset representation
- ›The Democrats' current polling presence and organizational infrastructure compared to established centrist parties like Yesh Atid and HaMeretz
- ›Historical patterns showing how many small parties in Israeli elections either fail to cross the threshold or merge with larger political blocs before voting
- ›Timing and composition of pre-election coalition negotiations, which frequently reshape the competitive landscape among smaller parties
- ›Election date and campaign calendar allowing The Democrats time to build visibility and mobilize supporters between now and late 2026
What moved the line
- Sep 4RZP-Zehut↑55pp31→86¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 31The Democrats↑54pp27→81¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 31United Torah Judaism↑51pp26→77¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 31Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)↑50pp27→77¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 31Ra'am↑50pp27→77¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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