SimpleFunctions

Republican National Committee report more than $135M in cash on hand at the end of Q3

Above $135M is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 6 inside Will Republican National Committee report more than $.

Price history

9¢ current

+2¢
5¢10¢
Jul 22, 2026Jul 22, 2026

Contract brief

If Republican National Committee's cash on hand is above $135 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $135M

Rank

#6 of 6

Leader

Above $85M 82¢

Range

8¢-82¢

Family volume

$633

Identifier

KXFUNDRAISING-RNCQ326-A135000000

Jul 23, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 17m ago

Implied probability

9¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 23, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 17m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$5

Family rank

#6 of 6

6 outcomes · Will Republican National Committee report more than $

Closes

Oct 21, 2026

Family volume

$633

Orderbook snapshot

8 / 9¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢2.1K
8¢7.9K
2¢100
AskSize
9¢1.9K
10¢200
27¢1
77¢248
78¢3.2K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Republican National Committee's cash on hand is above $135 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Oct 21, 2026

Identifier

KXFUNDRAISING-RNCQ326-A135000000

SF Signal
SF Index
2339.17
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will Republican National Committee report more than $.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$633

Outcomes

6

Highest price

Above $85M 82¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

4678.3%

IY (No)

35.4%

Adj IY

2339%

CRI

12

Overround

1.4%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

4678.3%
35.4%
Adj IY
2339%
12
Overround
1.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.