Will Republican win the House race for AR-01?
This contract is priced at 96¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 95¢ bid, 95¢ ask, 0¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
2
Family volume
$12K
Best sibling
Democratic party 5¢
Ticker
KXHOUSERACE-AR01-26-R
Market snapshot
Republican party in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Republican win the House race for AR-01?. The displayed quote is 96¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $3K. In the KXHOUSERACE-AR01-26 family, this outcome ranks #1 of 2 by current quote across 2 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 9:23 PM UTC.
Outcome
Republican party
Family rank
#1 of 2
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
96¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Nov 3, 2027
24h volume
$3K
Family context
2 outcomes · KXHOUSERACE-AR01-26
Quote range
5¢-95¢
Family leader
Republican party 95¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 9:23 PM UTC · 8m ago
Venue identifier: KXHOUSERACE-AR01-26-R. Family volume: $12K.
Price history
96¢ current
+5¢Orderbook snapshot
95 / 95¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If the House member sworn in for AR-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXHOUSERACE-AR01-26-R
Event family
KXHOUSERACE-AR01-26.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Republican party 95¢
Current share
28%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 96% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.