Troy Balderson · KXHOUSERACE-OH12-26
Troy Balderson is priced at 97¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 94¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXHOUSERACE-OH12-26.
Price history
97¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If the House member sworn in for OH-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Troy Balderson
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Troy Balderson 94¢
Range
3¢-94¢
Family volume
$111
Identifier
KXHOUSERACE-OH12-26-R
Oct 11, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 23h ago
Implied probability
Bid
94¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$11
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXHOUSERACE-OH12-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$111
Orderbook snapshot
94 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the House member sworn in for OH-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXHOUSERACE-OH12-26-R
Event family
KXHOUSERACE-OH12-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$111
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Troy Balderson 94¢
Current share
10%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 97% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.