Will Republican win the House race for TX-38
Will Republican win the House race for TX-38 is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 94¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
95¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If the House member sworn in for TX-38 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Republican win the House race for TX-38
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXHOUSERACE-TX38-26-R
Oct 10, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 19h ago
Implied probability
Bid
94¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
94 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the House member sworn in for TX-38 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXHOUSERACE-TX38-26-R
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Republican win the House race for TX-38 95¢
Current share
100%
Will Republican win the House race for TX-38
kalshi · KXHOUSERACE-TX38-26-R
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Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.