Republican party · SENATEAR-26
Republican party is priced at 94¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 90¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside SENATEAR-26.
Price history
94¢ current
Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Republican party
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Republican party 90¢
Range
1¢-90¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
SENATEAR-26-R
May 24, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
90¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$872
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · SENATEAR-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
90 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
SENATEAR-26-R
Event family
SENATEAR-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Republican party 90¢
Current share
—
Republican party
kalshi · SENATEAR-26-R
Democratic party
kalshi · SENATEAR-26-D
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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Event Probability API
Read 94% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.