Republican party · SENATEID-26
Republican party is priced at 97¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 93¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside SENATEID-26.
Price history
97¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Idaho for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Republican party
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Republican party 93¢
Range
2¢-93¢
Family volume
$20
Identifier
SENATEID-26-R
May 25, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
93¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$12K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · SENATEID-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$20
Orderbook snapshot
93 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Idaho for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
SENATEID-26-R
Event family
SENATEID-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Republican party 93¢
Current share
0%
Republican party
kalshi · SENATEID-26-R
Democratic party
kalshi · SENATEID-26-D
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.