Ashley Hinson · SENATEIA-26
Ashley Hinson is priced at 59¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 58¢ bid, 59¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside SENATEIA-26.
Price history
59¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ashley Hinson
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Ashley Hinson 58¢
Range
42¢-58¢
Family volume
$34K
Identifier
SENATEIA-26-R
Aug 24, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
58¢
Ask
59¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$10K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · SENATEIA-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$34K
Orderbook snapshot
58 / 59¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
SENATEIA-26-R
Event family
SENATEIA-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$34K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Ashley Hinson 58¢
Current share
30%
Ashley Hinson
kalshi · SENATEIA-26-R
Josh Turek
kalshi · SENATEIA-26-D
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.