Republican party · SENATEIA-28
Republican party is priced at 61¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 61¢ bid, 66¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside SENATEIA-28.
Price history
61¢ current
Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Republican party
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Republican party 61¢
Range
32¢-61¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
SENATEIA-28-R
Jun 24, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
61¢
Ask
66¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$322
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · SENATEIA-28
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
61 / 66¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
Identifier
SENATEIA-28-R
Event family
SENATEIA-28.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Republican party 61¢
Current share
—
Republican party
kalshi · SENATEIA-28-R
Democratic party
kalshi · SENATEIA-28-D
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 61% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.