Republican party · SENATEPA-28
Republican party is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside SENATEPA-28.
Price history
19¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Pennsylvania for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Republican party
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Democratic party 74¢
Range
19¢-74¢
Family volume
$14
Identifier
SENATEPA-28-R
Jun 4, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
24¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$2
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · SENATEPA-28
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
Family volume
$14
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 24¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Pennsylvania for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
Identifier
SENATEPA-28-R
Event family
SENATEPA-28.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$14
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Democratic party 74¢
Current share
14%
Democratic party
kalshi · SENATEPA-28-D
Republican party
kalshi · SENATEPA-28-R
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.