Bill Hagerty · SENATETN-26
Bill Hagerty is priced at 96¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside SENATETN-26.
Price history
96¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Tennessee for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Bill Hagerty
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Bill Hagerty 96¢
Range
4¢-96¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
SENATETN-26-R
Aug 19, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
96¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$6K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · SENATETN-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
96 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Tennessee for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
SENATETN-26-R
Event family
SENATETN-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Bill Hagerty 96¢
Current share
—
Bill Hagerty
kalshi · SENATETN-26-R
Marquita Bradshaw
kalshi · SENATETN-26-D
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 96% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.