Before Jan 1, 2027 · Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 32¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 29¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before.
Price history
32¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Before Jul 1, 2027 59¢
Range
4¢-59¢
Family volume
$21K
Identifier
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JAN01
Jul 9, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
29¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$20
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$21K
Orderbook snapshot
29 / 31¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JAN01
Event family
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$21K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jul 1, 2027 59¢
Current share
0%
Before Jul 1, 2027
kalshi · KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-27JUL01
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JAN01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-OCT01
Before Aug 1, 2026
kalshi · KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-AUG01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.