Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 4, 2026
Leader sits at 59% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jul 1, 2027
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Before Jan 1, 2027
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jul 1, 2027
357 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-OCT01
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JAN01
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-AUG01
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-27JUL01
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement before July 4, 2026. The 10-cent price for the near-term window suggests traders view an imminent announcement as unlikely, though the 52-cent price for before January 1, 2027 indicates higher expectations for retirement within the next six months. The probability would increase if Alito signals health concerns, signals retirement intentions, or if external pressure accelerates through additional congressional statements or media developments. The biggest near-term catalyst is whether Alito makes any public statements or retirement announcements in early July, with subsequent quarterly timeframes offering additional resolution points through the end of 2026.
- ›Current Kalshi contract prices show only 10% likelihood of announcement by July 4, 2026, compared to 52% by January 1, 2027
- ›Trading volume is highest on the January 2027 deadline ($15,885 in 24h volume), indicating that's where market uncertainty is concentrated
- ›No public statements from Alito or the Supreme Court indicate imminent retirement plans as of early July 2026
- ›The probabilities across staggered dates suggest traders expect potential announcement in late 2026 rather than immediate term
- ›Seasonal timing and typical Supreme Court announcement patterns (often at session end) affect probability distribution across these deadlines
What moved the line
- Jul 1Before Jul 1, 2027↑38pp30→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 2Before Jul 1, 2027↓13pp68→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 1Before Aug 1, 2026↓9pp29→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 3Before Oct 1, 2026↓8pp29→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 2Before Jan 1, 2027↓8pp46→38¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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