Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with the No side offering a 758% implied yield versus just 41.7% for Yes, despite the 75¢ price suggesting 75% confidence in San Diego reaching 75 wins.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with the No side offering a 758% implied yield versus just 41.7% for Yes, despite the 75¢ price suggesting 75% confidence in San Diego reaching 75 wins. The $0 24-hour volume and minimal $91 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the 15¢ spread and volatile 372% realized volatility potentially unreliable for serious position-taking. With 205 days to expiry and a sharp 17¢ price climb over seven days, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where the extreme yield skew may reflect pricing dysfunction rather than genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If San Diego has 75+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-SD-26-T75 yes 100