Will Sarah Pidgeon win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will Sarah Pidgeon win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing September 14, 2027. Sarah Pidgeon is priced at 40¢ with a notably high implied yield of 83.1% on the Yes side, suggesting the market may be undervaluing her chances or pricing in significant uncertainty.
Analysis
Sarah Pidgeon is priced at 40¢ with a notably high implied yield of 83.1% on the Yes side, suggesting the market may be undervaluing her chances or pricing in significant uncertainty. The contract has experienced substantial upward momentum over the past week, climbing 9¢ to 46¢ before settling at 40¢, indicating recent volatility and shifting sentiment around her candidacy. With 516 days until expiry and relatively thin liquidity ($1,736.64 open interest, $308.24 daily volume), this market lacks depth and could be vulnerable to sharp repricing as the Emmy season approaches.
Resolution rules
If Sarah Pidgeon has won Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-SARA yes 100