Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The 32¢ price implies a modest 32% probability of SoFi's S&P 500 inclusion in Q2 2026, but the extraordinarily high 1307% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant mispricing or extreme risk compensation for a binary outcome with 76 days to expiry.
Analysis
The 32¢ price implies a modest 32% probability of SoFi's S&P 500 inclusion in Q2 2026, but the extraordinarily high 1307% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant mispricing or extreme risk compensation for a binary outcome with 76 days to expiry. The thin liquidity ($3,920 open interest, $28 daily volume) and elevated realized volatility of 438% indicate this is a speculative, illiquid market where the wide 5¢ spread may not reflect true fair value. Notable upward price movement from 20¢ to 27¢ over seven days combined with the 3/10 cliff risk index suggests recent momentum, though the neutral regime and modest info arrival rate (1.1/h) don't indicate imminent catalysts driving inclusion decisions.
Resolution rules
If SoFi is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSP500ADDQ-26JUL01-SOFI yes 100