Before September 17th · Will SpaceX launch another Starship
Before September 17th is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 88¢ bid, 89¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Will SpaceX launch another Starship.
Price history
88¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before September 17th
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
Before September 17th 88¢
Range
9¢-88¢
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26SEP16
May 28, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
88¢
Ask
89¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$872
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Will SpaceX launch another Starship
Closes
Sep 17, 2026
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
88 / 89¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 17, 2026
Identifier
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26SEP16
Event family
Will SpaceX launch another Starship.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Before September 17th 88¢
Current share
16%
Before September 17th
kalshi · KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26SEP16
Before September
kalshi · KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26AUG31
Before August 17th
kalshi · KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26AUG16
Before August
kalshi · KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26JUL31
Before July 17th
kalshi · KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26JUL16
Before July
kalshi · KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26JUN30
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 88% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.