Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before September 17th
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Before September
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$14K
liquid
Closes
Sep 17, 2026
66 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will SpaceX launch another Starship
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026?: Before July 17th
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26JUL16
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?: Before August
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26JUL31
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026?: Before August 17th
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26AUG16
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?: Before September 17th
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26SEP16
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026?: Before September
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26AUG31
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that SpaceX will launch another Starship vehicle before July 17, 2026—roughly 7 weeks from now. The 31-cent price implies traders see significant uncertainty, with a roughly one-in-three chance of a launch by mid-July. Traders are more confident in launches by later dates: 61 cents by end of July and 88 cents by mid-September, suggesting the market expects delays or scheduling challenges in the near term. The main factors are SpaceX's recent launch cadence, regulatory approval timelines, technical readiness of the next vehicle, and any ground infrastructure constraints. The largest near-term catalyst is any official SpaceX announcement of a confirmed launch date or a regulatory clearance decision from the FAA.
- ›SpaceX's Starship launch frequency over the past 6-12 months and trend direction in flight rate
- ›FAA environmental or licensing approvals required for launches, and whether they are already granted or pending
- ›Technical readiness of the next Starship vehicle and booster, including any known damage from recent flights or maintenance schedules
- ›Weather patterns and launch window availability at Boca Chica or other facilities during June and early July 2026
- ›Market pricing across the May-to-September contracts suggests traders expect at least one launch by August, but material doubt about July completion
What moved the line
- Jul 7Before July 17th↑17pp4→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Before August↑17pp42→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Before August↑11pp63→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Before July 17th↑10pp21→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Before August 17th↑10pp77→87¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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