Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that SpaceX will launch another Starship vehicle before July 17, 2026—roughly 7 weeks from now. The 31-cent price implies traders see significant uncertainty, with a roughly one-in-three chance of a launch by mid-July. Traders are more confident in launches by later dates: 61 cents by end of July and 88 cents by mid-September, suggesting the market expects delays or scheduling challenges in the near term. The main factors are SpaceX's recent launch cadence, regulatory approval timelines, technical readiness of the next vehicle, and any ground infrastructure constraints. The largest near-term catalyst is any official SpaceX announcement of a confirmed launch date or a regulatory clearance decision from the FAA.

• ›SpaceX's Starship launch frequency over the past 6-12 months and trend direction in flight rate
• ›FAA environmental or licensing approvals required for launches, and whether they are already granted or pending
• ›Technical readiness of the next Starship vehicle and booster, including any known damage from recent flights or maintenance schedules
• ›Weather patterns and launch window availability at Boca Chica or other facilities during June and early July 2026
• ›Market pricing across the May-to-September contracts suggests traders expect at least one launch by August, but material doubt about July completion

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How we compute these odds