Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election
At least 35% is priced at 11¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 7 inside Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least.
Price history
11¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Swedish Social Democratic Party in the 2026 Swedish general election is 35% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 35%
Rank
#7 of 7
Leader
At least 27% 87¢
Range
5¢-87¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-35
Aug 25, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
17¢
Spread
12¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#7 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 17¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Swedish Social Democratic Party in the 2026 Swedish general election is 35% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-35
Event family
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
7
Highest price
At least 27% 87¢
Current share
—
At least 27%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-27
At least 29%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-29
At least 30%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-30
At least 31%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-31
At least 32%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-32
At least 33%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-33
At least 35%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-35
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.