Will Centre Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Top contract
3¢
$0 · Kalshi
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 35%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-35
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 32%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-32
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 31% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 31%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-31
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 30%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-30
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 29% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 29%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-29
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 27% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 27%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-27
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 33% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 33%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SDP-33
Cluster 2
Will Centre Party receive at least
Will Centre Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 10%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13CENTRE-10
Will Centre Party receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 8%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13CENTRE-8
Will Centre Party receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 4%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13CENTRE-4
Will Centre Party receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 3%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13CENTRE-3
Will Centre Party receive at least 9% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 9%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13CENTRE-9
Cluster 3
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 19% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 19%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SD-19
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 15%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SD-15
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 23% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 23%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SD-23
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 22%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SD-22
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 21%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13SD-21
Cluster 4
Will Green Party receive at least
Will Green Party receive at least 9% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 9%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13GREEN-9
Will Green Party receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?: At least 5%
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13GREEN-5
Cluster 5
Will Moderate Party receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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