Will Tadej Pogacar win Stage 21 in the 2026 Tour de France
Will Tadej Pogacar win Stage 21 in the 2026 Tour de France is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
17¢ current
+15¢Contract brief
If Tadej Pogacar wins Stage 21 in the 2026 Tour de France Cycling Grand Tour originally scheduled on Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Tadej Pogacar win Stage 21 in the 2026 Tour de France
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$18K
Identifier
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE21-TPOG
Jul 26, 2026, 7:42 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$10K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
Family volume
$18K
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Tadej Pogacar wins Stage 21 in the 2026 Tour de France Cycling Grand Tour originally scheduled on Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
Identifier
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE21-TPOG
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$18K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Tadej Pogacar win Stage 21 in the 2026 Tour de France 17¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.