Will Filippo Ganna win Stage 1 in the 2026 Tour de France
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
39%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
13 contracts
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
28 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 27% of their title tokens — “Will Tadej Pogacar win Stage” vs “Will Quinn Simmons win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Tadej Pogacar win Stage
Cluster 2
Will Quinn Simmons win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France
Will Quinn Simmons win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Quinn Simmons
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE9-QSIM
Cluster 3
Will Thomas Pidcock win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France
Will Thomas Pidcock win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Thomas Pidcock
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE9-TPID
Cluster 4
Will Abel Balderstone win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France
Will Abel Balderstone win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Abel Balderstone
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE9-ABAL
Cluster 5
Will Pablo Castrillo win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France
Will Pablo Castrillo win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Pablo Castrillo
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE9-PCAS
Cluster 6
Will Dorian Godon win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France
Will Dorian Godon win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Dorian Godon
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE9-DGOD
Cluster 7
Will Ion Izagirre Insausti win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France
Cluster 8
Will Florian Lipowitz win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France
Will Florian Lipowitz win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Florian Lipowitz
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE9-FLIP
Cluster 9
Will Frank van Den Broek win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France
Will Frank van Den Broek win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Frank van Den Broek
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE9-FVAN
Cluster 10
Will Matej Mohoric win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France
Will Matej Mohoric win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Matej Mohoric
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE9-MMOH
Cluster 11
Will Lucas Plapp win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France
Will Lucas Plapp win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Lucas Plapp
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE9-LPLA
Cluster 12
Will Alexander Aranburu Deba win Stage 9 in the 2026 Tour de France
Analysis
This represents an estimated 9% chance that Filippo Ganna wins Stage 1 of the 2026 Tour de France, based on aggregated market data. The probability reflects that Ganna faces substantial competition from sprinters and time-trial specialists, with Tadej Pogacar and Kevin Vauquelin currently favored. Stage 1 format and weather conditions closer to July 2026 will clarify whether it suits Ganna's sprint capabilities or favors other riders. Ganna's current form, any pre-tour injuries or illness, and his team's tactical positioning will be critical determinants. The stage will resolve on approximately July 4, 2026, when results are finalized. Market pricing remains relatively illiquid, with minimal 24-hour trading volume on this specific contract, suggesting limited consensus about the likelihood.
- ›Stage 1 terrain and finish type in the 2026 Tour route design — whether it's a sprint finish where Ganna's speed applies or a hilly/time-trial format favoring other specialists
- ›Ganna's competitive fitness and health status in early July 2026, including any injuries or illness preventing peak performance
- ›Team tactics and positioning — how Ganna's team deploys resources to support or protect him versus competitors' strategic choices
- ›Historical head-to-head performance between Ganna and named competitors (Pogacar, Evenepoel, Vauquelin, Arensman) in similar stage formats
- ›Market liquidity and contract volume are very low ($0 24h volume on Ganna's contract), indicating high uncertainty and limited analytical consensus
What moved the line
- Jul 11Tadej Pogacar↑14pp35→49¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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