SimpleFunctions

Tal Alexander · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01

Tal Alexander is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #14 of 16 inside KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01.

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Price history

13¢ current

+9¢
0¢10¢
May 23, 2026May 31, 2026

Contract brief

If Tal Alexander has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Tal Alexander

Rank

#14 of 16

Leader

Charlie Javice 21¢

Range

1¢-21¢

Family volume

$336

Identifier

KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-TALE

Jun 23, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 4m ago

Implied probability

13¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 23, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 4m ago

Bid

3¢

Ask

10¢

Spread

7¢

Reported volume

$7

Family rank

#14 of 16

16 outcomes · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$336

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 10¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
100¢550
100¢500
3¢250
3¢5
2¢84
AskSize
10¢250
12¢500
45¢98
46¢956
60¢56

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Tal Alexander has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-TALE

SF Signal
SF Index
3067.12
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$336

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Charlie Javice 21¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Charlie Javice

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-CJAV

21¢
$2$2—

Steve Bannon

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBAN

12¢
$28$28—

Sam Bankman-Fried

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBF

11¢
$31$31—

John Kiriakou

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JKIR

10¢
$32$32—

Bill Hwang

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BHWA

10¢
$0$00.5

Elizabeth Holmes

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-EHOL

10¢
$0$0—

Edward Snowden

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-ESNO

9¢
$0$0—

Ghislaine Maxwell

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-GMAX

8¢
$242$242—

Nicolás Maduro

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-NMAD

7¢
$1$10.3

Bob Menendez

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BMEN

7¢
$0$0—

Derek Chauvin

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DCHAU

6¢
$0$0—

Eric Adams

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-EADA

5¢
$0$0—

Donald Trump

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DJT

4¢
$0$0—

Tal Alexander

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-TALE

3¢
$0$0—

Braden John Karony

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BJK

3¢
$0$0—

Aimee Bock

kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-ABOC

1¢
$0$0—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

6134.2%

IY (No)

5.9%

Adj IY

3067%

CRI

32

Overround

1.9%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)
6134.2%
IY (No)
5.9%
Adj IY
3067%
CRI
32
Overround
1.9%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.