Talarico for Texas report more than $30M in total receipts during Q3
Above $30M is priced at 49¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 42¢ bid, 44¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside Will Talarico for Texas report more than $.
Price history
49¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If Talarico for Texas's total receipts is above $30 million from July 1 through September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $30M
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
Above $25M 52¢
Range
10¢-52¢
Family volume
$40
Identifier
KXFUNDRAISING-JTALQ326-A30000000
Jul 22, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
42¢
Ask
44¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$0
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · Will Talarico for Texas report more than $
Closes
Oct 16, 2026
Family volume
$40
Orderbook snapshot
42 / 44¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Talarico for Texas's total receipts is above $30 million from July 1 through September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 16, 2026
Identifier
KXFUNDRAISING-JTALQ326-A30000000
Event family
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$40
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Above $25M 52¢
Current share
0%
Above $25M
kalshi · KXFUNDRAISING-JTALQ326-A25000000
Above $30M
kalshi · KXFUNDRAISING-JTALQ326-A30000000
Above $35M
kalshi · KXFUNDRAISING-JTALQ326-A35000000
Above $40M
kalshi · KXFUNDRAISING-JTALQ326-A40000000
Above $45M
kalshi · KXFUNDRAISING-JTALQ326-A45000000
Above $50M
kalshi · KXFUNDRAISING-JTALQ326-A50000000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
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Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.