Before Jan 1, 2027 · KXEVENTOCCURCLTR-27
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 75¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 71¢ bid, 76¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
75¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If it is reported that Taylor Swift got married at Madison Square Garden and it's confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$56K
Identifier
KXEVENTOCCURCLTR-27-JAN01
Jun 25, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
71¢
Ask
76¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$57K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$56K
Orderbook snapshot
71 / 76¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If it is reported that Taylor Swift got married at Madison Square Garden and it's confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXEVENTOCCURCLTR-27-JAN01
Event family
KXEVENTOCCURCLTR-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$56K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 74¢
Current share
100%
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXEVENTOCCURCLTR-27-JAN01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 75% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.