Tesla · KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01
Tesla is priced at 47¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 40¢ bid, 45¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01.
Price history
47¢ current
−13¢Contract brief
If Tesla announces, implements, or acknowledges a layoff after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Tesla
Rank
#3 of 9
Leader
Microsoft 92¢
Range
9¢-92¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-TSLA
Jun 27, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
40¢
Ask
45¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$8
Family rank
#3 of 9
9 outcomes · KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
40 / 45¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Tesla announces, implements, or acknowledges a layoff after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
Identifier
KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-TSLA
Event family
KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Microsoft 92¢
Current share
—
Microsoft
kalshi · KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-MSFT
Amazon
kalshi · KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-AMZN
Tesla
kalshi · KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-TSLA
Oracle
kalshi · KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-ORCL
Alphabet
kalshi · KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-GOOG
TikTok
kalshi · KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-TIKT
Netflix
kalshi · KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-NFLX
Apple
kalshi · KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-AAPL
NVIDIA
kalshi · KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-NVDA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 47% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.