Will Apple issue layoffs this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
194 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will NVIDIA issue layoffs this year
Will NVIDIA issue layoffs this year?: NVIDIA
KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-NVDA
Cluster 2
Will Netflix issue layoffs this year
Will Netflix issue layoffs this year?: Netflix
KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-NFLX
Cluster 3
Will Amazon issue layoffs this year
Will Amazon issue layoffs this year?: Amazon
KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-AMZN
Cluster 4
Will Alphabet issue layoffs this year
Will Alphabet issue layoffs this year?: Alphabet
KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-GOOG
Cluster 5
Will Apple issue layoffs this year
Will Apple issue layoffs this year?: Apple
KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-AAPL
Cluster 6
Will Tesla issue layoffs this year
Will Tesla issue layoffs this year?: Tesla
KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-TSLA
Cluster 7
Will Oracle issue layoffs this year
Will Oracle issue layoffs this year?: Oracle
KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-ORCL
Cluster 8
Will Microsoft issue layoffs this year
Will Microsoft issue layoffs this year?: Microsoft
KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-MSFT
Cluster 9
Will TikTok issue layoffs this year
Will TikTok issue layoffs this year?: TikTok
KXCOMPANYLAYOFF-27JAN01-TIKT
Analysis
The market is currently pricing a 56% probability that Apple will issue layoffs before the end of 2026. This reflects expectations about potential workforce reductions at the company over the next seven months. The probability is being shaped by Apple's current financial performance, capital allocation priorities, and broader tech industry staffing trends. We're halfway through 2026, meaning most of the resolution window has already passed or is imminent. The main uncertainty centers on whether Apple management will announce layoffs in earnings calls or investor communications through year-end, or if the company maintains its current headcount levels. Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings announcement in late October would be a key moment that could significantly move this probability, as management typically provides forward guidance and staffing commentary during that period.
- ›Apple's current cash position and free cash flow generation, which determine whether financial pressure exists to justify reductions
- ›Comparison of Apple's headcount growth rate over the past 12 months versus revenue growth, indicating operational efficiency trends
- ›Industry-wide tech layoff frequency in 2024-2025, establishing baseline expectations for companies in the sector
- ›Public statements from Apple leadership regarding hiring plans or cost management in their most recent earnings calls
- ›Changes in specific business unit headcount (retail, services, hardware divisions) reported in quarterly filings or analyst estimates
What moved the line
- Jun 23Oracle↑7pp31→38¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Microsoft↑6pp77→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Microsoft↑6pp87→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Microsoft↑5pp72→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Microsoft↑4pp83→87¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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