Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 above 5.6 million barrels/day
Above 5.6 million barrels/day is priced at 93¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 92¢ bid, 93¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.
Price history
93¢ current
+92¢Contract brief
If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 5.6 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 5.6 million barrels/day
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Above 5.6 million barrels/day 92¢
Range
11¢-92¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXTXOIL-27MAR31-T5.6
Aug 22, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
92¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5
Closes
Mar 31, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
92 / 93¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 5.6 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Mar 31, 2027
Identifier
KXTXOIL-27MAR31-T5.6
Event family
Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Above 5.6 million barrels/day 92¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.