Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.7 million barrels/day

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Texas's 2026 crude oil production will average above 5.7 million barrels per day for the full year. The market is pricing this at just 16%, suggesting low confidence in reaching that threshold. Texas crude production has faced headwinds from infrastructure constraints, regulatory changes, and shale output variability. The key driver of this probability is whether new production capacity from recent drilling and completion activity comes online and maintains operational rates throughout 2026. The Texas Railroad Commission publishes official production data with a two-month lag, so full-year results won't be known until early 2027, though monthly reports starting in late 2026 will signal the trajectory. Near-term factors include global crude prices, which affect drilling economics, and any supply disruptions from Gulf operations or maintenance cycles. The runner-up contracts show steeper pricing drops at higher thresholds (5.8 million barrels/day at 6%), indicating asymmetric skepticism about sustained high output.

• ›Texas crude production in 2025 was approximately 5.3–5.5 million barrels/day; reaching 5.7 million represents a 4–7% annual increase from recent baseline
• ›Oil prices and drilling economics: crude prices below $60/barrel typically reduce drilling activity and capital allocation, which would pressure 2026 production upward trajectory
• ›Permitting and infrastructure availability in the Permian Basin; new well completions and pipeline takeaway capacity must materialize and operate reliably through all of 2026
• ›Monthly Texas Railroad Commission production reports beginning October–November 2026 will provide early signals; sustained production of 5.6+ million barrels/day by Q4 2026 would raise resolution probability
• ›Decline rates and downtime risk: existing producing wells naturally decline 3–8% annually; maintenance shutdowns and any supply chain disruptions would offset new production gains

What moved the line

• Aug 21Above 5.6 million barrels/day↑34pp44→78¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 21Above 5.7 million barrels/day↑28pp43→71¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 5.6 million barrels/day↑16pp28→44¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 5.7 million barrels/day↑16pp27→43¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 23Above 5.6 million barrels/day↑13pp78→91¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds