Absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 at least 0.40%
At least 0.40% is priced at 76¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 76¢ bid, 77¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 10 inside Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least.
Price history
76¢ current
+27¢Contract brief
If the the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 is at least 0.40%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 0.40%
Rank
#2 of 10
Leader
At least 0.20% 91¢
Range
4¢-91¢
Family volume
$86
Identifier
KXDXYFOMC-26JUL29-T0.40
Jun 25, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
76¢
Ask
77¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#2 of 10
10 outcomes · Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
Family volume
$86
Orderbook snapshot
76 / 77¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 is at least 0.40%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
Identifier
KXDXYFOMC-26JUL29-T0.40
Event family
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$86
Outcomes
10
Highest price
At least 0.20% 91¢
Current share
0%
At least 0.20%
kalshi · KXDXYFOMC-26JUL29-T0.20
At least 0.40%
kalshi · KXDXYFOMC-26JUL29-T0.40
At least 0.60%
kalshi · KXDXYFOMC-26JUL29-T0.60
At least 0.80%
kalshi · KXDXYFOMC-26JUL29-T0.80
At least 1.00%
kalshi · KXDXYFOMC-26JUL29-T1.00
At least 1.20%
kalshi · KXDXYFOMC-26JUL29-T1.20
At least 1.40%
kalshi · KXDXYFOMC-26JUL29-T1.40
At least 1.60%
kalshi · KXDXYFOMC-26JUL29-T1.60
At least 1.80%
kalshi · KXDXYFOMC-26JUL29-T1.80
At least 2.00%
kalshi · KXDXYFOMC-26JUL29-T2.00
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Settlement
Settlement resolves prediction market contracts to $1 or $0. Learn how Kalshi and Polymarket handle settlement.
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 76% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.