Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.60%

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that the U.S. Dollar Index futures contract will move at least 0.60% in either direction on July 29, 2026. At 91%, traders view such a move as quite likely within the timeframe. The high probability reflects expectations for meaningful currency volatility, likely driven by upcoming economic data releases, Federal Reserve communications, or geopolitical developments that typically influence dollar strength. The main driver of this probability level is the calendar proximity to potential macroeconomic announcements in late July—such as employment reports, inflation data, or Fed policy signals—that historically trigger 0.60%+ intraday or settlement-price swings in the dollar index. Uncertainty could shift downward if economic data disappoints expectations or upward if major central bank decisions are announced during this period.

• ›Historical volatility of ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures typically ranges 0.40–0.80% daily; a 0.60% threshold sits in the middle-to-upper range of normal trading days
• ›Implied probability of 0.20% moves (91%) versus 0.60% moves (current level) suggests the market expects tail-risk volatility events between these dates
• ›Volume and open interest in July 2026 front-month contracts will determine liquidity; thin trading could amplify price swings in either direction
• ›Scheduled economic releases between now and July 29 (jobs reports, CPI, ISM data, Fed communications) historically correlate with currency index moves exceeding 0.60%
• ›Current VIX and currency-implied volatility levels act as leading indicators; elevated volatility expectations would support higher probability of 0.60%+ moves

What moved the line

• Jun 22At least 0.20%↑22pp70→92¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22At least 1.20%↑16pp18→34¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22At least 2.00%↓14pp18→4¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22At least 1.00%↓10pp58→48¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22At least 1.60%↓7pp17→10¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds